Electoral map is blue and getting bluer

11/9/08
There's a temptation among those who backed the winners last week to gloat, but most understand it would be unseemly. This isn't a football game; it's not about winning elections, it's about changing policies.

But so much happened last Tuesday that can't be ignored. The results ran counter to everything we've been told for the past few years about our country's politics.

If we're a center-right country, how is Indiana a blue state?

Locally, while there are many who were eager to see Rep. Christopher Shays defeated, there are few who think he's a bad person, or even a bad congressman. He tied himself too closely to a bad president and his pet war, but that doesn't erase 21 years of service. His biggest problem was being a Republican in a banner year for Democrats.

For the state's most prominent supporter of John McCain, though, there is plenty of leftover anger. Joe Lieberman didn't just speak out on McCain's behalf, he threw himself into the campaign. Then, after the votes were counted, he said, "it is time to put partisan considerations aside and come together as a nation to solve the difficult challenges we face."

OK, then.

He didn't prove much of a salesman. He made his case for months, and the electorate, especially in his home state, turned out in huge numbers for the other guy -- the one Lieberman told us wasn't ready.

While punishing Lieberman would provide some short-term satisfaction, there's not much point. The Democrats don't need him to form a majority. He should lose his committee chairmanship, but beyond that, he's already received the worst punishment he could face -- irrelevance.

National voting patterns can change quickly, as evidenced by the four years it took from Republicans planning for a permanent majority to figuring out how to rebuild their party. But many trends are encouraging for Democrats.

The population is shrinking in the Northeast, a Democratic stronghold. But the places people are moving are all getting bluer -- Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina are all among the fastest-growing states, and they all moved to the Democratic column. Two others high on that list, Arizona and Georgia, were supposed to be GOP locks, but were in doubt right up to Election Day.

McCain won the vote among white people -- a not insubstantial percentage of the electorate. But it's also a shrinking percentage, a trend that's only going to gain speed in coming years.

The only age range that supported McCain was 65 and older. For obvious reasons, that's a tough group to base your future around.

There was plenty that was one-time-only about this election. Barack Obama making history was a big part, as was the revulsion over the Bush years, and a Republican candidate who Republicans themselves never really took to.

And for Democrats to stay in power, of course, they need to get things right. But the numbers indicate that if they show basic competence -- getting the economy going again would be a good start -- the demographics going forward are favorable.

Nearly every county that voted more Republican this year compared to 2004 lies in a swath of land that includes Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma, with parts of Louisiana thrown in. So that's 33 electoral votes you can already mark down in the red column for 2012.

The GOP can also likely count on stalwarts like Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Nebraska, and we'll toss in Alabama, Kansas and Kentucky for good measure. That's 40 more.

Given the trends, barring a radical makeover, the other 465 could be harder to come by.

Hugh S. Bailey is assistant editorial page editor at the Connecticut Post. He can be reached at 203-330-6233 or via e-mail at hbailey@ctpost.com.