State letting successful people slip away

9/2/07
Connecticut lost a seat in Congress after the 2000 Census. We’re not getting it back anytime soon.
People aren’t moving here, and people who were born here are leaving. If population growth remains anemic, we could lose another seat in the next few decades. Our neighbors in Massachusetts and New York are in serious danger of losing even more representatives to Southern and Western states.
And no one is surprised. Why would people live here? No one can afford it. The winters are awful. Why not escape to the sunshine?
I’ve been thinking about Southern migration since a highly successful pair of friends announced they were abandoning Connecticut for sunny Charlotte, N.C. When a husband and wife with their presumed earning potential (he’s a pharmacist, she’s a nurse in an intensive care unit) can’t make it work in this state, it’s natural to wonder why.
Everyone has personal reasons for making major life decisions — family, job opportunities, cost of living and a dozen other things factor in — and it’s never a good idea to extrapolate a trend from an anecdote. Just because one person is doing it doesn’t mean everyone is. But the Census numbers don’t lie: Connecticut is falling behind.
National Census data released in 2000 predicts populations out to 2030, and the numbers show Connecticut’s 30-year population growth at a paltry 8.3 percent. That’s not quite in Dakota territory, but it’s not great, either. The national rate is projected at 29 percent; North Carolina will increase by 52 percent.
What does North Carolina have that Connecticut doesn’t? Warm weather year-round doesn’t hurt. Lower prices, and fewer taxes, mean housing dollars go a lot further. More space brings less congestion. And the cities are young and vibrant instead of old and decrepit.
Barring family concerns, why would a youngish college graduate choose to live in Bridgeport or New Haven over Raleigh or Charlotte? True, it gets hot in the summer down there. But if that’s all we’ve got going for us, the state’s in a lot of trouble.
Our other asset, of course, is the greatest city in the world just a short train ride away. But that’s why no one can afford to live here in the first place. It’s not that anyone’s dying to live in Shelton or Trumbull, or even Greenwich. It’s easy access to New York that puts the state out of people’s reach.
Not everyone, clearly. The people at the top are doing fine, and there are more of them than ever. But the state is pricing out everyone else. How anyone without a trust fund or a hedge fund can afford to buy a house between here and the New York state line is a mystery.
A few places remain affordable. Bridgeport is one, for now, but it won’t stay that way if the city’s boosters have their way. All that luxury housing in the pipeline isn’t planned for working families; it’s to bring in young commuters to Manhattan. Those are the people who will bring cachet, and money, back into the city.
And it’s not just downtown. Once the third Fairfield train station is finished just over the town line, forget about affordable housing in Black Rock. Already the neighborhood is exploding, and prices will only go up.
The question has always been how far this money would push. Stamford and Norwalk are basically off-limits to budget buyers (and don’t even think about the suburbs around them). Maybe the wave will push up into the Valley and Shelton will start to look like Darien. But should we want that?
Then you have to wonder how far up Fairfield Avenue in Bridgeport the money will reach. Once Black Rock is conquered, maybe State Street is next. And if it is, who knows who will be able to afford to live there.
So it’s not surprising that people with minimal family ties would look to get out. And if that means 60-degree days in December, so much the better.
Urban renewal and development are almost always placed in a positive light, and it’s true that Stamford and Norwalk are more pleasant places to live than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Bridgeport desperately wants to join them, and no one wishes any ill on the people working hard to get by here. But if the city’s recovery prices people out, then the question becomes, who are we really doing this for?
Maybe all this development is in our best interests or maybe not, but North Carolina seems to be OK with it.

Hugh S. Bailey is assistant editorial page editor at the Connecticut Post. You can reach him at 203-330-6233 or via e-mail at hbailey@ctpost.com.